El Régimen

Sep 6, 2016 by

El Régimen

El régimen de 1975 sigue en una severa crisis institucional, como prueba la última investidura de presidente del gobierno fallida. Conforme la historia dicta, los regímenes políticos caen en España, desde el siglo XIX, sin remisión y con guerras civiles a la vista.

Ninguna institución política goza de fuerza notoria ante la opinión pública. Ni la monarquía, ni las Cortes Generales o los partidos políticos son una garantía ante la situación general todavía dominada por la crisis económica (datos de empleo), la corrupción de cargos públicos y la secesión de la Generalidad catalana en marcha. El régimen no tiene los días contados; pero proyecta dudas muy razonable sobre su vigencia.

La crisis del régimen autonómico sigue porque el nacionalismo catalán ha vuelto a desafiar al Estado español, en la reciente sesión de investidura. Esta es una razón de suficiente peso para que Partido Popular y Partido Socialista hubieran alcanzado un pacto de gobierno. La apuesta de Rajoy es coherente, oportuna y directa; sin embargo, el Partido Socialista rechaza tal alianza, que es un hecho cierto en Alemania (CDU coaligado con SPD).

Gracias al 23-F no hay peligro de que una asonada militar intentara desbloquear la situación política. La sociedad ha cambiado como para no entender soluciones de esta guisa. Recordemos que la Constitución no dispone de ningún mecanismo para desenredar la madeja política.

Los movimientos de los partidos políticos como de sus líderes encaja en la escena política. La izquierda española, moderada o extremista, no ha superado el síndrome del 36. Por el contrario, la derecha política o centro-derecha está hipotecado por el síndrome del 75. La nueva formación política Ciudadanos necesita decantarse. El régimen debería caer y dejar paso a otra etapa en España.

El Régimen político

El que no se llegue a la gran coalición, entre PP y PSOE, avala nuestra tesis. Aún así, nos damos cuenta de que la oportunidad histórica exige una actitud decidida para enfrentar los desafíos del Brexit, en Europa, y la secesión institucional catalana, en España. Si la divergencia es tanta, se acelerará el proceso de descomposición. Aunque la UE carga con lo que sea.

La ingenuidad de Ciudadanos se ha demostrado, primero, con el PSOE y ahora, con el Partido Popular. Dos acuerdos convertidos en papel mojado. El bipartidismo es la institución europea que sella la dominación norteamericana de la Europa occidental. La alternancia de dos grandes partidos no tiene la suficiente flexibilidad para improvisar un giro ostensible en la política efectiva del régimen.

No sabemos si los sentimientos republicanos crecen en una proporción notable. Veremos si la sentencia del caso Urdangarín y Cristina pasa factura a la institución monárquica (recurrible como se espera).

Los comentaristas políticos son más audaces que los propios políticos. Las quinielas sobre unas terceras elecciones están sobre la mesa, sin remedio.

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