La primavera europea

Sep 24, 2012 by

La confusión sobre el gobierno aumenta, a partir de la excarcelación del terrorista Iosu Uribetxeberria Bolinaga, dado el rechazo de las víctimas de la banda criminal vasca. Este hecho, nada sorprendente, nos aclara las circunstancias que rodean al gobierno de M. Rajoy, que goza de mayoría absoluta. El líder del Partido Popular fue vicepresidente del gobierno de J. M. Aznar, hasta convertirse en candidato, justo cuando sucedió el atentado del 11–M. El gran atentado, todavía sin esclarecer, demostró que el Partido Socialista controla el aparato del Estado, a través de los órganos judiciales, los cuerpos de seguridad del Estado y las agencias de inteligencia. El Partido Socialista puede perder las elecciones, como así ha sucedido recientemente, pero no tranfiere el poder que atesora en las instituciones del Estado.

El Partido Popular, en su actitud servil, frusta los anhelos regeneracionistas. Tal vez nos estemos acercando a un momento crítico, ante el desafío independentista catalán, demostrado en la gran manifestación secesionista en el día 11 de septiembre ( la Diada); la seguridad del presidente catalán revela una confianza en poderes exteriores que se pronunciarán en un futuro. Más problemas: las próximas elecciones vascas, con perspectivas muy negativas, y la atonía en la evolución en la crisis de deuda pública. No hay señales por parte del Partido Popular, que la opinión pública reconozca, de que la Monarquía parlamentaria de Juan Carlos I, se está descomponiendo. La pertenencia a la Unión Europea soporta, en lo político, regímenes corrompidos como el español, que precisa de nuevas reglas y actores. Estados Unidos, la potencia que domina Europa, puede favorecer una primavera europea, a partir de regiones como Cataluña y la comunidad vasca, en España, y de Escocia, en el Reino Unido.

Tomemos una pista. El sitio web Stratfor es imprescindible. Rehecho tras un ataque cibernético, el pasado año, sigue ofreciendo análisis geopolíticos con un fuerte sentido realista. Por ejemplo, George Fridman, el fundador de Stratfor –global inteligencia– reportó el artículo “The Election, the Presidency and Foreign Policy” para recordarnos que en la campaña electoral del 2008, “Barack Obama campaigned on a promise to redefine America’s relationship with both Europe and the Islamic world”. El autor no se esplaya con la primavera árabe, acontecimiento político, todavía en curso, que encaja con lo expresado por el actual presidente de los Estados Unidos. Pero queda la parte europea, pospuesta a un segundo mandato de Obama o recogida por el candidato M. Romney, del Partido Republicano.

Estados Unidos está detrás de la primavera árabe, como avisa el reciente asesinato del embajador estadounidense en Libia, por la ira popular que reconoce a los poderosos, como antes hizo con Gadafi; porque la política exterior de la gran potencia americana tiene un presupuesto, no declarado, pero firme y constante, que debe sortear las dificultades internas y externas. Ante todo, Estados Unidos debe derrocar los regímenes políticos dictatoriales con los que haya colaborado, en el pasado. Es la exigencia de un país democrático, como ha demostrado en Egipto, con la caída de J. Mubarak; con los talibanes, en Afganistán, que sucedieron a los muyahidines afganos que combatieron a la Unión Soviética, con la ayuda de Estados Unidos, en tiempos de la Guerra Fría, apostando por la teoría del “equilibrio activo”. El Sha de Persia, Mohammad Reza Pahlevi, enfrentó la influencia occidental con la planificación soviética; no dejo escritas unas memorias: ¿se hubiese atrevido a referirse a Estados Unidos como una mala compañía? (Asunto Mossadegh http://www.nytimes.com/library/world/mideast/041600iran-cia-index.html ). Ahora, EE.UU mantiene un litigio abierto con Irán, pendiente de las elecciones norteamericanas, en otoño del presente año. La lista se puede acrecentar con los dictadores sudamericanos.

“Obama’s efforts to transition away from active balancing of the system have been seen in Europe, where he has made little attempt to stabilize the economic situation”, asevera George Fridman para perprejidad de los europeos, convencidos de la autonomía de Europa, a partir del ascenso de Alemania a una situación dominante ante el resto de miembros de la Unión europea. ¿ Alemania independiente, con voluntad política propia? ¿A qué se debe la aparente pasividad norteamericana?

La crisis financiera y económica retiene todavía a Estados Unidos: “El plan recién aprobado por la Fed, bautizado como Quantitative Easing 3, no es tan simple como imprimir y arrojar dinero desde el cielo. Pero los efectos económicos son similares. Desde el punto de vista técnico, se inyecta dinero mediante la compra masiva de titulizaciones hipotecarias denominadas Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS). Éstas no son otra cosa que bonos que se emitieron en la época de la burbuja crediticia para financiar grandes paquetes de hipotecas, liberando así los balances de los bancos”. Leed el artículo completo.

Algo sustancial, que no puede ser otra cosa que la primavera árabe, todavía en curso, un esfuerzo diplomático y de inteligencia, es lo que ha tenido ocupado al gobierno de B. Obama, en sus obligaciones exteriores, por lo que ha confiado en el gobierno de Angela Merkel para los asuntos europeos; la inteligencia alemana apoya a los rebeldes sirios. Ante la indefinición económica, falta la determinación política: mirad el artículo de George Soros: una excelente reflexión con Alemania en el centro; ¿qué papel ha jugado Estados Unidos? Pero la primavera europea, que empieza a insinuarse en España, puede ser una solución en parte para los problemas financieros y económicos, por la reorganización general que implicaría. El nacimiento de nuevos Estados en el viejo continente, dada la frustación europea.

La paz impuesta en Europa, desde el fin de la II Guerra Mundial ha debilitado los resortes de los estados europeos. En esta fase de la crisis, marcada por la deuda soberana, Estados Unidos no desaprueba la política alemana; no hay signos de lo contrario. El rescate, la solución temporal financiera para determinados estados no quiebren, como Grecia, Portugal… y España debatiéndose en la convenencia o no de solicitarlo.
Siempre ha sido extraño la fuerza del movimiento secesionista en Cataluña o comunidad vasca, en España, tras una guerra civil y el régimen del general Franco, que también colaboró con Estados Unidos, hasta el asesinato del almirante Carrero Blanco, a manos de ETA y la sospecha de la infiltración de la CIA, que condicionó el nuevo régimen español.

La “Pax Americana”el status que rige para la Europa occidental, desde el desenlace de la II Guerra Mundial; con el inesperado desplome de la Unión Soviética, la “pax americana” se ha extendido inexorablemente, y auspicia la Europa de las regiones: la desintegración de Jugoslavia revela el orden deseado para la zona mediterránea, en la que España es un país vulnerable, por su historia e inclinación de sus líderes y gente… es decir, que la “pax americana” favorece sobremanera a los partidos sediciosos vascos y catalanes, desde la restauración monárquica, y ante la aparente neutralidad norteamericana, tan bien conservada.

Sin embargo, los Estados Unidos nunca ha declarado abiertamente que esperase del nacionalismo europeo el surgimiento de nuevos Estados; la actitud pública de la diplomacia norteamericana es consistente, desde las grandes confrontaciones militares del siglo XX; firme, ya que se basa en principios democráticos; ante los hechos consumados es cuando los Estados Unidos aparece como la nación que lidera a Occidente.

La primavera europea, caso de concretarse, debió planearse hace ya tiempo. El vaticinio más sugestivo fue realizado por Riccardo Petrella, en su momento director de previsión sobre ciencia y tecnología de la Comunidad europea. “A mediados del siglo venidero (s.XXI), Estados nacionales como Alemania, Italia, Estados Unidos o Japón ya no serán las entidades socioeconómicas más relevantes ni constituirán la configuración política definitiva. En cambio, áreas como Orange County, California; Osaka, Japón; la región francesa de Lyon o el Rurhgebiete alemán adquirirán una condición socioeconómica predominante. Las potencias que de verdad tomarán la decisiones en el futuro… serán empresas transnacionales, en coordinación con gobiernos municipales o regionales”.

La cita fue recogida por Alvin y Heidi Toffler en “Las guerras del futuro”. Material de tal calidad, del agrado del capitalismo global, llega a formar parte de los planes de contingencia o de más largo alcance de los Estados. Por eso, la primavera europea sería una etapa previa que nos conduciría al escenario político previsto por R. Petrella para Ocidente. Es más, la crisis actual debilita los Estados tradicionales, aunque tengan un papel fundamental en la economía y las finanzas. Pero nuevos Estados, como Cataluña o Escocia acelerarían la Europa de las regiones, con el sentido que describe R. Petrella.

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