En concepto de Geopolítica del Caos, acuñado por la publicación Le Monde diplomatic, se puede aplicar perfectamente a la política exterior de Estados Unidos con Obama y anteriores presidentes. Y el Estado profundo, es un concepto que nos remite a una realidad reconocida por el profesor Peter Dale Scott. Trump reloaded debe comprender que la Guerra Fría se cerró en falso; Rusia y China son dos potencias aisladas, que podrían llegar a un entendimiento mayor por el caso Siria. Europa es un protectorado norteamericano; mientras el Brexit es un reto al bloque anglosajón, sin desarrollar.
El salvaje bombardeo de Dresde, ciudad alemana, en el último año de la II Guerra Mundial, no permite una alianza entre Alemania y Gran Bretaña. Ha costado reconocerlo. Los británicos, porque es la actitud mayoritaria, a pesar de integrase en la UE; por su parte, Alemania reunificada no deja de comportarse como la Alemania occidental de la Guerra Fría. ¿Trump reloaded retirará las tropas norteamericanas de Alemania? ¿Cuánto sentido le quitaría Trump a la OTAN, garante de la Pax americana?
Somos conscientes que la campaña por el Brexit enseñó que el filo nazismo sigue vivo en Gran Bretaña; Alemania no debería caer en la trampa de radicalizarse abruptamente con las elecciones generales venideras.
Tampoco es viable una alianza Alemania-Rusia dado el comportamiento bárbaro del ejército rojo, que ultrajó a varios millones de mujeres alemanas, en el avance de las tropas de Stalin hacia Berlín. ¿Qué debe enfriar Trump reloaded en Europa antes de interpretar la situación de Oriente Medio?
La Primavera árabe es un trabajo largo de la diplomacia e inteligencia de Estados Unidos ( el Estado profundo) y sus aliados en la zona: países del Islam suní y el sionismo israelita, muy discreto. Obama casi triunfa: vuelta atrás en Egipto y desconcierto sirio; todo conforme con la Geopolítica del Caos. Con la guerra de Siria como un claro reto para Trump reloaded:
¿cambiará Estados Unidos de estrategia y táctica en una zona especialmente caliente? ¿Cuánto tiempo necesitaría?
Estados Unidos es una gran potencia naval con el poder aéreo incluido; dispone de 11 portaaviones y otros tantos en construcción. Esto obliga a la nueva administración Trump a proclamar en el discurso inaugural « América first »
Política interior hasta dónde se pueda. El republicano Trump firmó un decreto para retirar a Estados Unidos del acuerdo comercial con el Pacífico, en sus primeros días de mandato. La piedra de toque antiglobalización será la revisión del NAFTA, el acuerdo de libre comercio entre las naciones de Norteamerica: Estados Unidos, Cánada y México.
Hay varios millonarios en el equipo de Trump reloaded.
El enfrentamiento entre magnates y políticos profesionales es una nueva tormenta sobre Washington. Recordemos el excelente film (1963) de Otto Preminger sobre el sistema político de Estados Unidos. La debilidad presidencial como la salvaguardia de la separación de poderes en Norteamérica.
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